COVID—One thing you can do today
/There’s only one news item this year.
My sympathies to anyone who has been affected by COVID-19, directly or through family, friends or colleagues. We’re all in this together—and we all need to help.
With the full force of the world’s media in play, it’s hard to discern the nuggets from the noise. I’ve been studying the available information about COVID for some time and will be sharing observations with you going forward. I hope this helps.
Four themes for today, then—Optimism, Measured concern, What WE can do—a time for leaders to shine, and One thing you can do today.
Comparisons with previous outbreaks—Spanish flu, SARS and MERS—are starkly positive in one regard—in 2020, technology provides us with vastly superior tools to combat this threat together. There’s never been a better time build our trust in technology.
Reasons for optimism
Technology has already dramatically impacted our understanding of the COVID virus. Amongst all the confusion, we know two things:
The genome was sequenced within days of being identified, and more data is being captured and published on this condition than most any other (including COVID’s big cousin, the seasonal flu).
As fast as the science is moving, a cure is unlikely for many months.
I draw two conclusions from this …
Many brilliant people are already focused on the problem and we can all play our part in the remedy.
Measured concern
“More data” is a blessing and a curse. In my view, this means there’s a much bigger haystack with a few useful needles.
The headlines report number of cases and death rate, but these are lagging indicators, likely to be inaccurate as many minor cases may never be diagnosed. The value of these numbers is simply that they draw attention to the tragedies that have occurred and thereby help us avoid complacency by taking action now—likely a measured over-reaction—to reduce further tragedies.
The best leading indicator of serious illness appears to be the transmission rate (R0/ r-nought), currently estimated by the WHO to be in the 2-2.6 range. Every carrier—symptomatic or asymptomatic—infects 2-2.6 new carriers.
When this number decreases, the battle is being won. When R0 drops—and remains—below 1, the virus is doomed. It’s not an easy number to measure—at best an estimate—but it’s the one to watch.
There’s a possibility that this is already happening in China—though we cannot be sure for many reasons. The corollary is that regional transmission rate data would be useful.
Whether or not the economic recovery is V-shaped, U-shaped or L-shaped, it’s likely to turn on this number. Until that time, we need to act with measured concern.
What WE can do—a time for leaders to shine
And what exactly does “measured concern” mean for each and every one of us?
Firstly, the opportunity or challenge arises from our reaction to the condition itself. We are at our best when we stay positive. This means following the few important numbers, always remembering that this shall pass, and helping each other by finding a way to contribute to the solution.
Secondly, we can all reduce R0 by reevaluating the meaning of unnecessary travel. Face to face meetings are the most effective, but these are special times. Necessary travel requires more time in airports, on public transit, or in large gatherings. Skip one of those trips and you could save a life. What’s your definition of unnecessary travel?
If there’s one thing YOU can do today
Cancel that trip and increase your adoption of video calling. It’s a tool for our age at commodity prices.
If I can help you in any way to do that, let me know right now.